How our Model Accurately Predicted Hurricane Beryl’s Impact

At 7Analytics, we understand that the true test of any model lies in its real-world application. That’s why we conducted a real-world validation of our pluvial flood model during Hurricane Beryl. Our goal was to ensure that our model not only performs well in controlled environments but also delivers accurate predictions under the most challenging conditions.

Hurricane Beryl: A study in unpredictability

Hurricane Beryl made its landfall in Texas on 8th of July 2024, and captured worldwide attention due to its unpredictable nature. It intensified at an explosive rate, breaking records to become the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was a relatively compact storm, Beryl’s path shifted unexpectedly as it approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, significantly altering the forecast and resulting in 8-11 inches of rainfall and localized flooding in areas like Houston.

Partnering with StormGeo gives us world leading weather intelligence

Our partnership with StormGeo let us combine our advanced flood modeling with their top-tier forecasting capabilities. The collaboration significantly enhances the accuracy and timeliness of our predictions, even as weather conditions change rapidly. Together, we provide a comprehensive solution that not only predicts inundation levels but also adapts to real-time changes, ensuring that our clients have the most accurate information at their fingertips.

Early warning allows for protective measure

One of the critical advantages of our model is its ability to offer early warnings, allowing for proactive measures before disaster strikes. In events like Hurricane Beryl, where sudden shifts in the storm’s path can dramatically alter the impact, having timely and accurate information is crucial. By predicting where and when flooding will occur, our model enables communities, businesses, and emergency responders to take necessary actions to protect lives, assets, and infrastructure.

Documentation and real-world comparisons

To show how accurate our model is, we documented and compared our predictions with what actually happened during Hurricane Beryl. The close match between our forecasts and the real events proves how reliable and effective our approach is. Here is a selection of comparisons to see how well our model works in real-world situations.